66 years on, Nigeria must escape the fragility trap, by Olu Fasan

That is one question Nigerian leaders don’t want to confront. Indeed, it irks them when anyone says that Nigeria is a fragile state. What’s more, some Nigerians, out of sheer romantic or sentimental patriotism hate it when the word “fragility” is used to describe Nigeria.

It is unpatriotic, they reckon, for anyone to suggest that Nigeria is a fragile state. But this is not a subjective matter, rather it is an objective reality, based on rigorous assessment of key political, economic and social indicators. Nigeria may choose to be the judge and the jury in its own matter and declare itself strong and stable, the world simply does not see it that way, and the evidence points to a deeply fragile state.

In their seminal report on state fragility, published in 2018, Professor Sir Paul Collier, from Oxford University, and Professor Sir Tim Besley, from the London School of Economics, provided a useful analytical framework for understanding state fragility. They came up with what they called the Six Symptoms of State Fragility. They are 1) the prevalence of organised non-state violence; 2) a government lacks legitimacy in the eyes of many citizens; 3) a state has a weak capacity for essential functions; 4) the environment for private investment is unattractive; 5) the economy is exposed to shocks with little resilience; and 6) deep divisions in the society.

Anyone who examines these symptoms carefully would admit that they perfectly describe Nigeria. Is there anyone who would say there is no prevalence of organised non-state violence in Nigeria when, according to media reports, there were at least 4,326 civilian deaths between January to March in this alone? Or can anyone say that the Nigerian government has the capacity to provide essential amenities for its citizens?

Or is the environment attractive private investment when several long-term foreign investors are deserting Nigeria and the country is only attracting volatile portfolio investment? The truth, except for the self-deluded, is that Nigeria is a deeply fragile state. Indeed, international indexes show it.

For instance, in the 2024 Fragile States Index, published by The Fund for Peace, Nigeria was ranked the 15th most fragile state out of 179 countries. Nigeria has also been ranked the 15th most fragile state in the 2026 Frag…