A high-stakes fight for state political power heats up, with Trump’s agenda on the line

Political power in legislatures and governors’ offices is at stake in the November elections in more than one-third of the states, creating down-ballot drama in the midterms that could have significant implications for President Donald Trump’s agenda. Outside groups aligned with the two major parties have pledged heavy spending in a battle for control of closely divided legislatures in at least a half-dozen states. But that’s just the tip of the spear in their political jousting.

In numerous other states, the parties are striving to make or break a legislative supermajority — an important threshold that allows them to enact laws with little regard to dissent. And in several states, competitive gubernatorial races could determine whether one party achieves a political trifecta, grasping hold of both legislative chambers and the top executive spot. Party control of state governments can shape policies on contentious issues including abortion, school choice, data centers and the use of law-enforcement surveillance cameras.

In a few states, the electoral outcomes this cycle could also have congressional redistricting implications for 2028. The state races also carry significant implications for Trump’s agenda, because the elected officials can either aid or resist his immigration enforcement actions, social safety net limitations and efforts to alter voting procedures. All told, voters in 46 states will choose more than 6,100 lawmakers in November, accounting for about 83% of all legislative seats nationwide, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures.

Thirty-six states will hold gubernatorial elections. Trump’s approval ratings could swing state legislatures Historically, the party of the president typically loses U.S. That also is true of state legislative seats.

In midterm elections over the past 50 years, the president’s party has lost an average of 7.9% of its house and assembly seats up for reelection in states, according to research by Steven Rogers, a political science professor at Saint Louis University. In Trump’s first midterm, in 2018, Republicans lost 8.7%, Rogers said. A similar showing this year could spell the end of Republican control of legislative chambers in Arizona, Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Minnesota currently has the nation’s tightest margins, with an even split … But that's just the tip of the spear in their political jousting.In numerous other states, the parties are striving to make or break a legislative supermajority — an important threshold that allows them to enact laws with little regard to dissent. Thirty-six states will hold gubernatorial elections.Trump's approval ratings could swing state legislaturesHistorically, the party of the president typically loses U.S.