AI race redraws Asian air cargo, replacing e-commerce as growth engine

The global race to build artificial intelligence is redrawing Asia's air cargo map, prompting airlines to redesign networks around growing ​semiconductor manufacturing hubs as cross-border e-commerce loses momentum. Unlike the post-pandemic parcel boom, demand tied to AI infrastructure is underpinned by multi-year orders for advanced memory chips and processors ‌and hundreds of billions of dollars of planned investment in data centres, airlines and logistics companies say. At the same time, tighter low-value import rules in the US and Europe are dampening the cross-border e-commerce trade that has driven much of the industry's recent growth.

"E-commerce was air freight's single biggest growth pillar, but that is no longer the case," Niall van de Wouw, chief airfreight officer at Xeneta, said when the freight analytics firm issued its mid-year outlook ​this month. Korean Air Lines offers one of the clearest examples of the transition. Cargo revenue surged 46% in the second quarter to 1.54 trillion won ($1.07 billion), driven by AI chips, server ​racks and data centre infrastructure that the airline said had replaced e-commerce shipments from China as its primary growth engine.

Advanced high-tech cargo "has rapidly expanded ⁠as a core growth driver," said Jaedong Eum, executive vice president and head of Korean Air's cargo business. Demand is unusually visible, he said, with orders for advanced high-bandwidth memory chips and processors ​already stretching two to three years into the future even as demand continues to exceed supply. Read: Trump administration bans new Chinese humanoid robots, to protect US AI buildout Global semiconductor sales more than doubled year-on-year in April, the strongest growth since records began in 1986, according ​to Xeneta.

By contrast, China's low-value and e-commerce exports fell 7% in May, marking a sixth consecutive monthly decline. The US ended duty-free de minimis treatment for low-value imports from China last year, while the European Union this month abolished its own duty-free threshold. Fast-fashion retailer Shein said on Sunday those changes had hurt its US business and were expected to create further headwinds in Europe.

Japan's ANA Holdings said in a statement that the EU move was ​a downside risk for the broader cargo market even as semiconductor-related shipments remained strong.