AP Decision Notes: What to expect in California’s special congressional election

WASHINGTON (AP) — Four months after Democratic U.S. Eric Swalwell resigned from Congress amid sexual assault allegations that torpedoed his campaign for California governor, his former Bay Area constituents will pick a replacement Tuesday to serve out the rest of his term. With two Democrats competing on the ballot, the seat in California’s 14th Congressional District is guaranteed to remain under Democratic control and further narrow an already fragile Republican majority in the chamber.

Aisha Wahab and Bay Area Rapid Transit Board President Melissa Hernandez were the finalists in the June 16 special primary, in which the top two finishers regardless of party affiliation advanced to Tuesday’s special election. The two also will compete in the fall in a slightly redrawn district for a full term that begins in January 2027. Wahab placed first in both the June 16 special primary and the June 2 primary for the full-term seat to replace Swalwell, who has denied the allegations against him.

In both contests, Wahab led Hernandez by more than 20 percentage points. The race has also attracted the attention of several outside groups, including some affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a powerful pro-Israel lobbying organization. United Democracy Project, a super political action committee backed by AIPAC, spent $1.2 million on the race in August in support of Hernandez and in opposition to Wahab, according to Federal Election Commission records.

Another group, Bold America, which has received funding from United Democracy Project, has spent about $1.7 million on the race since the special primary, also in support of Hernandez and in opposition to Wahab. Collectively, outside groups have spent about $4.1 million on the race since mid-July. About $3.7 million was spent to benefit Hernandez’s campaign, compared with just shy of $400,000 to benefit Wahab’s.

The boundaries of the 14th Congressional District were redrawn as part of a new congressional map approved by voters in a 2025 statewide ballot measure known as Proposition 50. The map goes into effect for the full-term seat in January, while the winner of the special election will serve under the curren…