AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Missouri’s state primary

Louis-area congressman faces a Democratic primary rematch Tuesday against the former congresswoman he previously ousted, a showdown that has again drawn the attention of a powerful pro-Israel organization. The contest, as well as primaries for Missouri’s seven other U.S. House seats, will be the first held since Republican state lawmakers adopted a new congressional map backed by President Donald Trump that was designed to boost their party’s chances of keeping control of the chamber in November’s midterm elections.

Louis-based 1st Congressional District, freshman Democratic U.S. He must first clear a strong primary challenge from his predecessor, former U.S. Cori Bush, who was a member of the group of progressive House members known as The Squad.

Bell defeated Bush in the 2024 primary by nearly 6 percentage points with the help of about $8.6 million in outside spending from the political arm of the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC, which promotes U.S.-Israel relations. Bush has been a vocal critic of Israel since its response to the Oct. The committee spent about $3.1 million in July against Bush and in support of Bell ahead of Tuesday’s primary.

The district is heavily Democratic. Democratic then-Vice President Kamala Harris received about 78% of the district vote in her unsuccessful 2024 presidential run against Trump. On the other side of the state, Democratic U.S.

Emanuel Cleaver is running for a 12th term on much different turf than the compact, Kansas City-based district he’s represented for more than 20 years. The Republican-controlled state Legislature’s mid-decade redistricting plan carved up heavily Democratic Kansas City among three districts and stretched what remained of Cleaver’s 5th Congressional District eastward to pick up heavily Republican areas. Cleaver is now running in a district that Trump carried with about 58% of the vote, compared with the current 5th District, which supported Harris with about 61% of the vote.

The six Republicans running to challenge Cleaver in November include former Boone County Clerk Taylor Burks, state Sen. Rick Brattin and former law professor Brett Hueffmeier. Burks led the Republican field in fundraising, more than tripling Brattin in both money raised and cash in the bank as of mid-J…