Argentina’s energy trade balance further cemented its position as one of the country’s main sources of foreign currency earnings during the first half of 2026. According to a report by economist Nadin Argañaraz, the sector’s surplus improved by US$2.2 billion compared with the same period in 2025, almost entirely due to a sharp increase in energy exports. The study shows that in June alone the energy trade balance posted a surplus of US$611 million, with exports totaling US$1.4 billion and imports amounting to US$794 million.
According to Argañaraz’s analysis, the result for the first semester was driven by a US$2.2 billion increase in exports, partially offset by a US$67 million rise in imports. The report highlights that the improvement in price and volume effects can be explained mainly by two factors: the Middle East conflict and rising production from the Vaca Muerta shale play. Argañaraz breaks down the improvement of the energy trade balance into price and volume effects and concludes that higher prices contributed US$552 million, while increased export volumes accounted for an additional US$1.6 billion.
Together, these inputs resulted in a net improvement of US$2.2 billion compared with the first half of last year. While stronger international prices helped boost the balance, the main driver of the surplus was the increase in energy production and exports. Best first half in a decade A chart prepared by Argañaraz using data from Argentina’s national statistics agency INDEC shows a dramatic turnaround in the country’s energy trade balance.
After several years of substantial deficits — including a low point of nearly US$5.2 billion in 2022, driven by soaring imports of natural gas and fuels — the sector began a rapid recovery in 2023. It later consolidated a surplus in 2024, reached a new record in 2025, and set another record in the first half of 2026. Between 2017 and 2022, Argentina’s energy trade balance alternated between modest surpluses and widening deficits, reaching its worst first-half performance in 2022 with a deficit of nearly US$4.6 billion.
The main cause for that drop was the surge in energy import costs following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The deficit narrowed by approximately 76% compared with 2022, while in 2024 Argentina returned to surplus, posting a year-on-year improvement of more than 350%.
Summary from source