Can Mthuli Ncube deliver? Expectations high ahead of 2026 Mid-Term Budget Review

FINANCE Minister Mthuli Ncube is expected to present the 2026 Mid-Term Budget Review later today, amid growing expectations that the government will introduce measures to address the country’s economic and social challenges during the second half of the year. The review comes against a backdrop of improved macroeconomic indicators, with Zimbabwe’s economic growth projected at between 4.3% and 5% for 2026, while inflation has continued to moderate. Latest data from the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency (ZimStat) shows annual ZWG inflation at 3.2%, with month-on-month inflation easing to 0.1%.

This week, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced the successful completion of the first review of Zimbabwe’s Staff-Monitored Programme (SMP), saying the country had met all key quantitative targets while cautioning that downside risks remained. Despite the improving macroeconomic outlook, expectations are high that the Mid-Term Budget Review will go beyond favourable statistics and introduce measures that directly improve livelihoods. The 2026 National Budget maintained the tax-free threshold at US$100 per month (US$1,200 annually) or ZWG2,800 per month (ZWG33,600 annually), a level many believe no longer reflects the cost of living.

Ncube is also expected to provide an update on funding for key social sectors, particularly health and education, where service delivery continues to face significant challenges. According to the latest Afrobarometer survey, seven in 10 Zimbabweans (70%) said they worry “a lot” about falling ill and being unable to access or afford medical treatment. A further 13% said they worry “somewhat,” while 9% said they worry “a little.” The survey also found that 61% of Zimbabweans believe the government is performing poorly in improving basic health services, while 38% said it is doing well.

Education financing is another area expected to feature prominently after Ministry of Primary and Secondary Education statistics revealed that approximately 40,000 pupils dropped out of school in 2025, with failure to pay school fees cited as one of the leading causes. Stakeholders are also looking to the Treasury to outline measures aimed at addressing youth unemployment, with the Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency estimating that more than two million young people remain unemployed or underemployed. The challenge has become more pressing followin…