Caribbean urged to prepare for hotter, drier conditions as El Nino intensifies

BRIDGETOWN, Barbados — Governments, businesses, farmers and households across the Caribbean are being urged to step up preparations for potentially severe climate extremes as El Niño strengthens and threatens to intensify the hot and dry conditions already affecting parts of the region. In a news release on Tuesday, the Caribbean Institute of Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH) and the University of the West Indies Climate Studies Group Mona (UWI CSGM) warned that the region should remain particularly vigilant as August to October marks the peak of the Caribbean’s heat season. The unusually dry conditions are also raising concern because the region is expected to enter its climatological dry season around November.

Current forecasts indicate that below-normal rainfall could persist into 2027, while potentially record-breaking heat could develop during the next heat season, particularly from March through May. Dr Cedric Van Meerbeeck, climatologist at CIMH, said El Niño conditions in the Pacific strengthened rapidly from weak levels around May 2026 to moderate levels by July. Monitoring data now point to further rapid intensification, with forecasts showing a high likelihood of very strong El Niño conditions between October and December 2026.

The conditions are also expected to persist into the peak of the Caribbean dry season in March 2027. Historically, El Niño has been associated with severe droughts across the region, including those experienced in 2009–2010 and 2014–2016. It can also increase the risk of extreme humid heat, wildfires and marine heatwaves, which can contribute to coral bleaching, according to Dr Van Meerbeeck.

He said similar combinations of extreme heat and other climate impacts were recorded during the exceptionally hot years of 2010, 2023 and 2024. Areas already experiencing drought, particularly in the Eastern Caribbean, could face slower recovery of water resources during the peak of the wet season between September and October or November 2026. Forecasts through at least October also point to a widening area of below-normal rainfall stretching from the Guianas in South America across the Lesser Antilles and into the Greater Antilles.

At the same time, the region is expected to experience an increase in the number of days with hot spells. The combination of reduced rainfall and increased evaporation could result in drought conditions a…