Climate-driven temperature changes are on track to cause about 430,000 additional deaths every year by 2050, with 10 times more deaths occurring in poor countries than in richer ones. How many of those lives can be saved largely depends on access to energy, particularly the electricity needed for cooling. But how many of those lives can be saved will largely depend on access to electricity, especially the power needed to keep people cool during extreme heat.
A new report by the Climate Impact Lab warns that many of the countries expected to suffer the most from rising temperatures are also the least able to provide enough electricity for fans, air conditioners and other cooling systems. “Air conditioning is a life saver, and climate change will no doubt lead to more AC adoption in today’s wealthy countries. Our research finds, however, that in too many countries around the world people will not be able to respond in the same way.
The result is one of climate’s great cruelties: lots of death in the very countries that have contributed the least to climate change,” says Michael Greenstone, a co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and the Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago. “These findings are a clarion bell that many countries do not have much time to improve the functioning of their electricity markets so they deliver inexpensive and reliable energy and identify other successful adaptations that can save lives.” The report finds that today only the world’s richest have the resources needed to power cooling. As temperatures rise, many middle-income countries are expected to expand their electricity supply and use more power for cooling.
Electricity used for cooling is projected to grow seven times more in middle-income than in low-income countries due to climate change. In fact, the growth of electricity use per person due to a warming climate in low-income countries is projected to be so small it would only be enough to power a single LED bulb for four months. The same poor countries projected to see so little increase in electricity also tend to be hotter than other countries.
The report identifies areas in 18 countries, home to 676 million people, that are trapped in this deadly combination of extreme heat and lack of cooling. Due to hotter temperatures and little projected increase in energy consumption…
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