Economists don't expect reopening the US to Mexican cattle imports to reduce high beef prices

reopened a border crossing in Arizona to cattle from Mexico on Monday as part of a broader effort by the Trump administration to reduce record-high beef prices, though economists doubt the move will mean much to grocery store shoppers.The U.S. Department of Agriculture has said concerns about the New World screwworm's spread lessened enough to allow the movement of cattle from Mexico at a crossing in Douglas, Arizona, about 230 miles (370 kilometers) southeast of Phoenix. Over time, it hopes to reopen other crossings in New Mexico and Texas.“Today, the border in Sonora is open for livestock,” Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said during a Monday morning news conference in Mexico City, referring to the Mexican state bordering Arizona.Beef prices clearly are a concern for President Donald Trump, who announced Friday that he would allow up to 331,000 tons (300,000 metric tons) of imported ground beef into the U.S., tariff-free, to be sold at below-market prices over the next 90 days.

In February, the White House said closing the border to livestock imports from Mexico more than a year ago was “essential” to containing the screwworm but it has exacerbated a shortage of cattle for slaughter in the U.S.“The administration obviously has a lot of incentive to try to be able to say that they’re doing something about high beef prices in particular,” said Derrell Peel, a professor of agribusiness at Oklahoma State University. “Beef has been singled out because it is an expensive product and because it’s just high profile.”The Trump administration closed the border to cattle imports in May 2025 as part of its response to the screwworm, a parasite with flesh-eating larvae that can infest and even kill cattle or other animals. already was struggling to meet beef demand, thanks to a cattle herd that has been shrinking for five years and now is the smallest in decades.Because the USDA plans a phased reopening of the border, it will take months for Mexican imports to return to their traditional levels, Peel said.

Mexico has traditionally provided 1.1 million head, or about 3% of the U.S. cattle supply.“I don’t expect to see any measurable impact on cattle prices or beef prices soon,” Peel said.The smallest US herd in decades fueled record pricesThe USDA reported that on Jan. cattle herd had dropped to 86.2 million head, the …