El Niño Forecast to Wreak Havoc on Ethiopian Agriculture in Coming Months

Ethiopia faces a contrasting extreme climate threats as intensifying El Niño conditions deepen severe rainfall deficits in parts of the country while forecasts indicate above normal rains and flooding in southern and eastern areas later this year, according to a new regional report on food security. The Food Security and Nutrition Working Group (FSNWG) Special Report, titled “Strengthening El Niño Conditions: Implications for Rainfall, Flood Risk and Food Security in Eastern Africa” and published this week, examines the implications of the strengthening El Niño episode for rainfall, flooding, agriculture, food security and nutrition across Eastern Africa. With its effects already being felt across parts of the region, the group now warns the ongoing El Niño episode is forecast to strengthen over the coming months and persist through early 2027.

The findings show that western and eastern Ethiopia are currently experiencing below average rainfall, while eastern and southern parts of the country face heightened flood risks from expected above average rainfall between October and December. The report draws a stark comparison stating that the rapid build up of El Niño through July 2026 mirrors the event of the 1997-1998 devastation. “The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast that this El Niño has a 95 per cent chance of being categorized as a ‘strong’ or ‘very strong’ episode in late 2026,” it reads..

For Ethiopia, rainfall deficits affecting its central and northern parts during the June to September season followed by heightened rainfall and flood risks in the east and south during October to December are identified as the two sharply different seasonal risks. The document notes that central and northern Ethiopia have already experienced prolonged dry conditions, and states western parts of the region have had a “very poor start to the season,” with prolonged dry spells observed since April. According to FSNWG, rainfall data obtained from June 1 to August 25, including two week forecasts, show that widespread areas of central and northern Ethiopia have received less than 60 percent of normal rainfall.

Forecasts also indicate that below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures are likely to persist between August and October “In the worst-affected areas, this is among the driest seasons on record,” it reads, noting that the effe…