Erste Group does not expect any changes to Romania's rating and outlook under the Fitch review scheduled for the evening of Friday, July 31, after the markets close, according to the weekly macroeconomic report published on July 27. Erste also referred to the extraordinary session of the Parliament in Bucharest, convened between July 27 and 31 to debate draft laws that represent milestones in the recovery program on which access to European funds depends. Analysts believe the process should proceed smoothly.
The lawmakers have to legislate six laws that are also PNRR milestones with EUR 4.5 billion grants attached, but at least one of them - the Wage Law for the budgetary sector (EUR 770 million grant attached) will be deferred amid a lack of agreement. It is understood that the rating agencies have deferred a decision on Romania’s sovereign rating, which is currently on the lowest investment-grade level with a negative outlook attached, until more visibility is on the 2027 budget planning. While the January-June 2026 budget execution, with a 2% of GDP deficit, paves the way for smooth fiscal consolidation this year – the political crisis complicates an agreement on further budgetary measures next year.
S&P in May issued an ad-hoc review affirming the country’s rating/outlook, but the decision regarded short-term developments in a particularly volatile situation. The agency will also review Romania’s rating and outlook in October. On July 31, Fitch will review the ratings of the Czech Republic, Croatia, and Romania.
Erste analysts Juraj Kotian and Katarzyna Rzentarzewska wrote that Romania is the one in the focus of investors, but that they do not anticipate changes in any of the three countries. Moody’s will review Romania’s sovereign rating one week later, on August 7. iulian@romania-insider.com (Photo source: Ruletkka/Dreamstime.com)
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