mission chief to Nicaragua, Kevin O’Reilly, stated that political change in Nicaragua is inevitable and warned that Russia will not be able to indefinitely support the regime of Daniel Ortega and Rosario Murillo when it faces a new internal crisis. He also noted that the administration of President Donald Trump represents a much more unpredictable scenario for the dictatorship and did not rule out the possibility that Washington might resort to extraordinary measures similar to those recently implemented in Venezuela. During an interview with 100% Noticias, O’Reilly explained that Trump’s return to the White House has altered the geopolitical context upon which the Nicaraguan regime had built much of its international strategy.
According to the former diplomat, Ortega and Murillo have sought Moscow’s protection for decades, first under the Soviet Union and later under the Russian Federation. However, he asserted that this support does not constitute a permanent guarantee. “It’s a leaky roof,” he said, using a term that, he explained, comes from a Russian idiom used to describe a protective or covering structure.
He recalled that other strategic allies of the Kremlin have experienced the limitations of this support. He cited as examples the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria and the current situation facing Nicolás Maduro’s regime in Venezuela. Executive Power “When the crisis hit, Russia simply watched the ally collapse without being able to effectively protect it,” he stated.
O’Reilly maintained that the relationship between Moscow and Managua primarily benefits Russian strategic interests and not Nicaragua’s development. In his opinion, Russia is using Nicaragua as a platform to expand its political influence in the Western Hemisphere and to develop intelligence and disinformation operations. “They are taking more advantage of Nicaragua than Nicaragua benefits from it,” he stated.
He added that Russian assistance has primarily strengthened the regime’s intelligence, surveillance, and repression apparatus, rather than the well-being of the population. official noted that China is also seeking to expand its presence in Nicaragua, although he considered Russia’s role to be much more decisive in matters of security and intelligence. “Nicaragua’s economic stability depends much more on access to the US market t…
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