Future of Amazon rainforest policies at stake in Brazilian presidential election

SAO PAULO (AP) — Brazil’s October presidential election could reshape the future of the Amazon, with the winner leading the country that contains about 60% of the world’s largest rainforest — an ecosystem vital to the global climate. Heading into the first round of voting on Sunday, the front-runners are Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, and President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who is seeking a fourth, nonconsecutive term.

The conservation of the Amazon has been largely absent from this year’s campaign. Still, the two men represent starkly different visions of how the rainforest should be managed, and climate and conservation experts warn that a victory by Flávio Bolsonaro could reverse the deforestation-control policies Lula restored after taking office in 2023. During Jair Bolsonaro’s presidency, from 2019 to 2022, Amazon deforestation surged by about 60%, with over 45,000 square kilometers (17,400 square miles) cleared, according to official data.

Under Lula, deforestation has fallen 45%, reaching its lowest level in more than a decade. Lula’s Amazon policies could face opposition in conservative Congress Lula’s policies would face resistance from a conservative Congress, where agribusiness holds significant sway. But his plan largely extends an agenda of emissions cuts and financing tropical forests.

Flávio Bolsonaro has pledged to end illegal deforestation by 2029, a year ahead of Brazil’s current target. Lula’s goal goes further: zero net deforestation by 2030, meaning any forest loss, legal or illegal, would have to be offset through restoration. Deforestation and other land-use changes are Brazil’s largest sources of greenhouse gas emissions, which drive global warming.

The stakes are especially high in the Amazon, which stores vast amounts of carbon dioxide and generates atmospheric moisture that helps regulate weather far beyond South America. Bolsonaro has not detailed his Amazon-related policies, saying broadly that his administration would intensify efforts against environmental crime and promote conservation. “Flávio Bolsonaro is a defender of the environment and of those who preserve standing forests and clean rivers,” his campaign told The Associated Press in a statement.

It said his government would create economic incentives for conservation and restoration. Bolsonaro says he doesn't believe climate c…