Drivers can expect pump shock déjà vu as the national average gas price again climbed over $4 per gallon Monday, as President Trump appears poised to escalate the war in Iran.The big picture: Tanker traffic is once again being choked in the Strait of Hormuz after fighting between Iran and the U.S. reignited, with Washington reinstating a naval blockade that could dramatically escalate tensions.Oil prices have risen as the conflict has escalated and the memorandum of understanding between the U.S. and Iran unravels.Driving the news: The national average is now $4.00 a gallon, per AAA.Catch up quick: Last month, prices slipped back below $4 per gallon, giving some relief following months of pain at the pump.
As a result, Americans reported feeling better about the economy. Majorities of Americans in multiple polls had blamed Trump to some extent for the pump shock. While the current average per gallon is below recent highs, it's up 86 cents year over year.Data: AAA; Chart: Ben Geman/AxiosState of play: Trump weighed expanding U.S.
military strikes on Iran on Tuesday as he huddled with his team in a Situation Room meeting where they discussed a massive offensive wider in scope than the current bombardments.U.S. Central Command has said the recent strikes were in response to Iran's attacks on commercial shipping and aimed to further degrade Tehran's military capabilities.What we're watching: As the Strait of Hormuz crisis ensnares global markets, countries and companies are scrambling for ways to bypass the waterway.Go deeper: Rise in gas prices caused "financial hardship" for two-thirds of households surveyed Just when Republicans thought they'd caught a break on gas prices, the collapse of President Trump's Iran deal is derailing their best chance to change the inflation story before the midterms.Why it matters: Falling gas prices are one of the most tangible ways to ease voter anger over inflation.
Renewed combat — and the threat of escalation — has prices shooting back up.The big picture: Trump has said repeatedly that gas prices will "drop like a rock" when the war is over. But the war doesn't look like it's ending anytime soon.When the U.S. 28, average gas prices nationally were $2.98 a gallon, per AAA.
They eclipsed $4.50 in May, gradually dropped to about $3.75 earlier this month, and are now flirting with the $4 mark since combat broke out again.Zoom in: Surprisingly, Americans typically don't punish politicians for their own economic suffering; instead, they tend to look at how government policies are affecting the country overall.But gas prices are a different story, says Stanford's Jon Krosnick, who's studied how they affect politics."It's hard to think about any other economic indicator where the number is literally posted on signs on the streets where everybody's traveling," he told Axios.Data: AAA; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios VisualsZoom out: Krosnick, in a 2016 study looking at three decades of evidence, found that a 10-cent increase in gas prices caused a 0.6% drop in a president's approval ratings. He said the effect extends to the president in power's party.Unlike other instances where presidents could blame other global factors, it's clear in this case that Trump owns the war.And Iran's unwillingness to open the Strait of Hormuz shows he can't dictate events like he's used to."If the strait stays closed, he could be in deep trouble in the election," says Desmond Lachman, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and former International Monetary Fund official. "Iran knows it can cause real damage to the economy before the election."Nearly eight in 10 Americans say gas prices are straining their household budgets, according to a PBS/NPR/Marist poll last month.Context: The Republican-controlled Congress approved a housing affordability bill that Trump panned.
Otherwise, the GOP has little to point to on the subject of voters feeling squeezed by higher prices.Trump has fixated on unproven allegations of voter… Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei on Saturday issued a belligerent statement accusing President Trump of violating the U.S.-Iran agreement and pledging a strong response by Iran and its proxies if the fighting continues to escalate. Why it matters: Khamenei's statement came as renewed hostilities between the U.S.
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