House Republicans adopted a budget resolution that kickstarts the party-line reconciliation process. It now heads to the Senate, where it'll face an uphill battle. House Republicans officially kicked off reconciliation 3.0 on Wednesday, narrowly approving a budget framework to unlock work on their planned $95 billion package.Why it matters: The vote gets Republicans into the reconciliation process, but lawmakers in both chambers have signaled the package itself faces a difficult path to passage.Two Republicans — Reps.
Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) and Warren Davidson (R-Ohio) — voted against the measure, along with all Democrats. Kevin Kiley (Calif.) also voted against the measure, which passed 216-214.The package includes $73 billion in funding for the Iran war, $12 in farm aid and a $10 billion fund aimed at incentivizing states to adopt elements of the SAVE America Act.While the measure narrowly eked by, members remain uneasy about the lack of spending offsets, and disagreements persist over enforcement mechanisms for their signature election bill.Driving the news: President Trump and administration officials ramped up pressure on House Republicans to support the budget resolution ahead of Wednesday's vote. "I am asking all House Republicans to VOTE YES this week on the Budget Resolution, which is an important first step towards getting a Budget Bill," Trump wrote Monday on Truth Social.Between the lines: The proposed SAVE America Act provisions are already drawing criticism from some conservatives.Rather than including the full SAVE Act, the package proposes grants to encourage states to adopt voter ID requirements."That's just free money for Florida," Rep.
Randy Fine (R-Fla.) said of the grant program last week. Blue states "will never take the grant money. I like sticks."Yes, but: Senate Republicans have warned that including the full SAVE Act would likely fail to meet the parliamentary standard for reconciliation bills in the Senate known as the "Byrd bath."What's next: Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) is cautioning that reconciliation 3.0 still faces a steep climb.Thune told reporters Tuesday that Senate Republicans will "hold" the budget reconciliation framework to use as a potential back-up plan to avoid a government shutdown at the end of September.
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) wants to hold a conspicuously early vote on a short-term funding bill next week — more than two months before the government runs out of money.Why it matters: Johnson may be setting himself up to win in September by losing in July.A failed vote on a short-term spending stopgap could potentially strengthen the GOP leader's hand in another difficult challenge: securing $67 billion for the Pentagon to replenish its munitions through the reconciliation process, according to conservative lawmakers.An early defeat on a continuing resolution would give Johnson a pretext to shoehorn a spending stopgap bill into a September reconciliation package.Call it Reconciliation 3.0 Plus."The Dems know, 'OK, if we don't do the CR, we'll do it in a [reconciliation] bill," Rep. Eric Burlison (R-Mo.) told Axios.What we're watching: Johnson and Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) are on starkly different wavelengths when it comes to a third reconciliation package."You've got to think long and hard about this. It's a much easier proposition in the House," Thune said Thursday.But pairing a continuing resolution with reconciliation could have two advantages.
First, it makes it harder for House Republicans to oppose the package.It would also present the Senate with a take-it-or-leave-it choice: accept the House reconciliation bill or share the blame for a government shutdown.Zoom out: Republicans are increasingly worried about spending the final month of the midterm campaign defending a government shutdown.House Republicans have little confidence Democrats will provide the votes needed to pass a funding extension.The planned July vote is designed to put both Democrats and the Senate on notice that Republicans don't believe they can count on bipartisan support for a continuing resolution.The other side: GOP senators are deeply skeptical about pivoting to a CR in July.They want to give the regular appropriations process time to work. And they are aware that public talk of a stopgap measure risks undercutting bipartisan negotiations over full-year spending bills.Driving the news: Johnson said Thursday he plans to bring a clean continuing resolution to the House floor next week before lawmakers leave for the August recess. (The Senate is scheduled to remain in session for two additional weeks.)But there's little reason to believe it will pass.Hou…
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