How close is the Amazon to a ‘tipping point?’ Brazil’s election could help shape its future

SAO PAULO (AP) — While Brazil’s presidential candidates have not made policy of the Amazon a major campaign topic, climate scientists and environmentalists say the winner of Sunday’s race could determine whether, and how soon, the world’s largest rainforest could reach a “tipping point.” The key threshold, heavily debated among scientists, in simple terms would be when the dense, humid, moisture-generating forest shifts to a drier ecosystem. That would come with irreversible consequences for biodiversity and the climate, as the forest absorbs massive amounts of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that drives global temperature to rise. Brazil contains about 60% of the Amazon, which is spread across several countries in South America.

Here is a look at the two presidential candidates and how their different visions of the Amazon may intersect with a potential tipping point: Both candidates expected to handle Amazon policy differently President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, trying to win a fourth nonconsecutive term, has sought to curb deforestation and finance a sustainable economy through international donations and public and private funding. If he wins, he is expected to continue such policies. Flávio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, has said he doesn’t believe climate change is real while casting himself as an environmental defender.

He has offered few details on his plans for forest protection or financing. He has called for a “modernization” of environmental laws and giving landowners in the Amazon more decision-making power, which environmentalists say would weaken safeguards and allow deforestation to accelerate. Deforestation surged under Jair Bolsonaro, who governed from 2019 through 2022, as he dismantled enforcement agencies and loosened environmental norms.

Meanwhile, under Lula’s current government, the lowest Amazon deforestation rate on record was announced last week. Tipping points could apply to many ecosystems A tipping point is a critical threshold beyond which a small change can trigger a major shift in an ecosystem or climate system. Scientists study such risks in regions or systems like the Amazon, Antarctic ice sheets and circulation patterns of the Atlantic Ocean.

For the Amazon, some research suggests that losing more than 20% of the forest, combined with global warming of around 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahre… If he wins, he is expected to continue such policies.Sen.