Newz*Warns of tougher times as global growth slows to 3.1% *Says AI boom, energy shocks threaten global economic outlook By Babajide Komolafe, Economy Editor The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has upgraded its forecast for Nigeria’s economic growth for 2026 to 4.2 per cent but warned that rising energy and food prices, geopolitical tensions and potential market corrections linked to artificial intelligence (AI) threaten the global economic outlook. The new forecast was contained in the IMF World Economic Outlook report October 2026, titled Resilience Under Strain, Urgent Choices”, released on Monday during the ongoing annual meetings of the IMF/World Bank in Bangkok, Thailand. Furthermore, the new forecast represents one percentage point above the 4.1 per cent earlier projected by the IMF in the July 2026 edition of its WEO.
According to the IMF, “Growth in sub-Saharan Africa is expected to remain stable at 4.5 per cent in 2026, though this masks substantial divergence across countries, reflecting differences in policy space, reform implementation, commodity exposure, climate shocks, and access to external financing. “Oil-importing, non-resource-intensive economies are more adversely affected by higher energy and food prices, whereas some larger economies continue to benefit from earlier stabilisation and reform efforts, even though they are largely absent from the AI-driven global technology upswing and face headwinds from declines in official development assistance. “Nigeria is supported by improved macroeconomic stability and favourable terms-of-trade effects, though higher prices for essentials are expected to further aggravate poverty and food insecurity.” Global growth under pressure However, the IMF warned that the global economy’s resilience was under increasing pressure, with growth projected to slow from 3.5 per cent in 2025 to 3.1 per cent in 2026, before recovering to 3.4 per cent in 2027.
Speaking at the press briefing on the WEO report, Sylvana Tenreyro, the IMF’s Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, said, “The global economy has been resilient, but that resilience is under strain, with risks tilted to the downside.” She added, “The task ahead is to move from coping to rebuilding,” stressing the need to restore fiscal space, strengthen supply-side resilience and improve countries’ capacity to withstand future economic sh… BANGKOK (AP) — The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slightly upgraded its outlook for the world economy for this year, while warning of growing risks from rising debt, including the financial frenzy around artificial intelligence.The IMF says it expects the global economy to grow at a 3.1% pace this year. That's up from its July forecast for 3.0% growth and well below the 3.5% expansion in 2025.
Growth in 2027 should rebound to 3.4%, it said in its latest Economic Outlook.The report, released as world economic and financial leaders gathered in Bangkok for the fall meetings of the IMF and World Bank, predicts that growth in the United States will remain steady at 2.3% in 2026 and 2027.Collectively, advanced economies will grow 2.1% this year, up from 2.0% in 2025, and then slow to 1.9% growth next year, it said.The forecasts are based on a nearly 41% increase in oil prices this year, at an average of $96 a barrel. Global inflation is foreseen at 4.7% in 2026, falling to 4.1% next year. They also are based on the assumption that shipments of oil and gas through the Strait of Hormuz will resume by March, and that the boom in AI demand will moderate.AI has uneven impactsThe boom in artificial intelligence is offsetting damage from sharply higher prices for oil and gas, IMF economists say, but it also carries risks.Its benefits are not shared equally: the U.S.
and China account for more than three-quarters of net demand for imports of computer chips and other AI-related equipment, the report said.“The outlook is highly uneven,” Silvana Tenreyro, the IMF's director of research, told reporters in Bangkok.Growth is increasingly concentrated, with 32 countries accounting for 95% of global growth, the report said. That compares with 54 countries as of April.“The global economy is not simply slowing or accelerating; rather, growth is being reallocated across countries according to their exposure to the war-induced supply shock and AI-related demand strength,” it says.Athanasios Vamvakidis, deputy director at the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department, said an AI-related correction in stock markets is just one of the risks. Rising bond yields are another evolving problem, along with cyberthreats that could disrupt financial systems, he said.Underscoring such concerns, sell-offs of AI-related shares swept through Asia on Tuesday, with South Korea's Kospi si…
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised slightly upward its outlook for the world economy growth for this year, while also warning of growing risks from rising debt, includin... The IMF has raised its 2026 global growth forecast slightly to 3.1%, citing the resilience of advanced economies despite rising energy prices caused by the Iran war. But it warned that poorer countries that are not benefiting from the AI boom remain particularly vulnerable to energy shocks, economic uncertainty and mounting debt.
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