Microsoft has topped earnings expectations consistently in recent years, yet its stock is near a one-year low. So while it’s worth paying attention to revenue and profits when the company reports its fiscal year-end results Wednesday, there are clearly other forces at play on Wall Street. Here are the key stats and trendlines to watch going into the earnings report for the fourth quarter of the company’s 2026 fiscal year, ended June 30.
Core numbers: Analysts expect revenue of about $87.7 billion for the quarter, up 14.7% from a year ago, and earnings of $4.24 per share, up 16%, according to Yahoo Finance. Microsoft’s own revenue guidance was $86.7 billion to $87.8 billion — meaning Wall Street is looking for a result at the very top of the company’s range. For the full fiscal year, that works out to roughly $329 billion in revenue, up 17% from $281.7 billion in fiscal 2025.
Capital expense: This is the big one. Microsoft told investors to expect more than $40 billion in capital spending for the quarter, which would be a record — up from $31.9 billion in the March quarter and $37.5 billion in the one before that. About two-thirds goes to GPUs and other short-lived hardware.
For the calendar year, the company expects to spend roughly $190 billion. Chief Financial Officer Amy Hood said about $25 billion of that total is the result of higher component prices. One big question this week will be the company’s guidance for capex going forward.
Because this is the fiscal year-end, Wednesday brings the company’s first capital spending guidance for fiscal 2027, which began July 1. Capex concerns: Google parent Alphabet last week foreshadowed what may happen to Microsoft. It reported revenue up 24% and cloud revenue up 82%, then raised its own capital spending forecast to as much as $205 billion — well above the roughly $188 billion analysts expected.
The stock fell 7% the next day and Alphabet fell below its prior $4 trillion market valuation. Big picture, investors seem to have decided the capital spending is getting ahead of the payoff. Data centers and chips cost money now, while the AI revenue meant to justify them arrives over years — if it ever reaches the scale these companies are promising.
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