While Javier Milei’s government expects energy, mining, and agriculture to remain the main engines of the economy, it is also betting that a new expansion of credit will generate the long-awaited spillover effect and boost economic recovery. Though it has not been stated explicitly, the economic team hopes to replicate the consumer lending boom that took off in late 2024 and continued through much of 2025, which came to a halt following the failed unwinding of the LEFI (Letras Fiscales de Liquidez, or Fiscal Liquidity Bills) instruments and heightened pre-election volatility. A few days ago, Deputy Economy Minister José Luis Daza said the government is working on “many alternatives” with that objective in mind.
The challenge is that high levels of loan delinquency, rising unemployment and informality, together with the lack of a full recovery in wages—which, although they have improved in recent months, remain below their level prior to Milei taking office—are working against that goal. A recent report by consultancy firm 1816 estimated that household loan delinquency climbed to 12.7% in May. That translates into 5.8 million Argentines with overdue debt, a record high.
Analytica director Claudio Caprarulo arrived at a similar estimate: 27% of the 19.8 million Argentines with outstanding credit are currently delinquent, amounting to 5.3 million people. Caprarulo told the Herald that while household delinquency increased in May, “the number of delinquent individuals did not.” He also noted that the pace at which bank customers are falling behind on their payments has been slowing. Economist and former Central Bank director Jorge Carrera argued that it is not yet possible to be “completely certain” that the debt delinquency process has come to an end.
“The reasons behind this remain fully in place. It has more to do with the decline in economic activity and household income than with interest rates, which haven’t fallen that much either,” he told the Herald. He said the current level of debt delinquency “is high and concerning,” adding that the number of people struggling to repay their debts “may actually be larger than the statistics suggest.” “In some cases, because these borrowers are established clients, banks prefer to reclassify them, giving them another opportunity or offering some form of refinancing,” he explained.
Luciano Patruco, an economist at Ec… In a recent interview, the president highlighted economic progress and lauded the national team manager's 'extraordinary leadership' La entrada Milei stands by Central Bank reform, praises coach Scaloni se publicó primero en Buenos Aires Herald. In a speech on the eve of the Argentine Independence Day, the president highlighted achievements of his government, seeking to win investors’ trust La entrada Milei calls governors for support in ‘new stage’ of his administration se publicó primero en Buenos Aires Herald.
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