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NOAA report finds Gulf of Maine warming slowed for now, but ecosystem remains unstable

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Maine’s fishing ports are doing well for now, but climate change is destabilizing the Gulf of Maine, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s latest “State of the Ecosystem” report for New England waters. Federal scientists presented the report to the New England Fishery Management Council in April, and published it online last week. They found that some Maine fishing ports are growing busier, likely driven by the high price of lobster.

Stonington, Harpswell and Friendship all see more activity now than they did roughly 20 years ago. And 2025, like 2024, offered slightly cooler water temperatures after more than a decade of rapid and record-breaking warming in the Gulf of Maine. But the scientists predict that temperatures will warm again this fall, and will continue to rise long-term as the burning of fossil fuels releases greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.

To weather these ongoing changes, fishermen and their communities need to diversify their businesses, experts say. “We’re seeing big changes that are sweeping across the ecology of the system and fisheries. Even socially, culturally — how communities are structured, where people are fishing, who’s actually doing the fishing.” This annual report includes contributions from more than 100 scientists across the Northeast.

NOAA has had to make do with fewer resources as the federal government’s priorities have changed under the second Trump administration, but otherwise the report has been prepared and published as usual, Caracappa said. And in fact, this latest report debuted a new section dedicated to forecasting ocean conditions in the year ahead. That could help the report’s intended audience of fisheries managers navigate an uncertain future, said Michelle Bachman, a senior fishery analyst at the New England Fishery Management Council, which gives federal officials recommended management plans for fisheries in the region’s federal waters.

Bachman said that when she began working at the council in 2008, she and her colleagues did not talk about climate change. That’s now changed, in part thanks to these reports from NOAA, which have been published annually for about 10 years. Federal scientists presented the report…

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