Pay close attention to monthly inflation, changes in T-bills, lending rates – PwC to CEOs, Boards

PwC is urging Chief Executive Officers and Boards, to pay close attention to the direction of monthly inflation as reported by the Ghana Statistical Service (GSS), especially food and imported components, the execution of the government’s capital expenditure programme in the second-half of the year as against first-half underspending, the changes in the Treasury bill and bank lending rates, and their pass-through effect, among others. This is coming on the back of uncertainty in the global economy due to the Middle East war, which could impact commodity and financial markets. The professional services firm said Ghana’s second-half year outlook is increasingly exposed to the global energy and geopolitical cycle.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects global growth of 3% in 2026 and global inflation of 4.7%, noting that the global disinflation process has stalled. Its baseline assumes average oil prices of approximately US$89 per barrel. The World Bank also projects Brent crude at about US$86 per barrel in 2026 and fertiliser prices to rise by 31%, including a 60% increase in urea prices.

The accounting and advisory said a prolonged Middle East conflict would raise fuel, freight, insurance and food production costs, worsening Ghana’s trade balance and increasing domestic transport and electricity pressures. It added that a further complication is the tightening bias re-emerging in major economies. “Renewed energy inflation is limiting the ability of the US Fed, European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) to reduce rates.

Higher-for-longer global rates would delay Ghana’s return to affordable international capital markets and increase the cost of trade finance and external corporate borrowing”. It, however, mentioned that upside opportunities remain, saying elevated gold prices support exports and reserves Again, supply-chain diversification could attract manufacturing investment, whilst the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) creates potential for regional exports and Ghana’s relative political stability. Summary Assessments of Implications for Key Sectors Manufacturing PwC said improving macro stability, lower interest rates, and a steadier Ghana cedi are positives.

However, the main risk is that imported input costs could rise again in the second-half year. Additionally, delayed spending on infrastructure, which includes roads and…