PH losses among Johor Chinese voters mainly due to low turnout, says Ong

Former Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming said BN's estimated support among Malay voters who cast ballots remained consistently high across every age group.PETALING JAYA: Barisan Nasional's apparent pull among younger voters in the Johor election was largely due to the higher proportion of Malay voters in a certain age group, according to DAP's Ong Kian Ming.In a statement, the former Bangi MP said claims of a "youth swing" to BN should be treated with caution, as the coalition's estimated support among Malay voters who cast ballots remained consistently high across every age group."Among Malay voters who cast ballots, estimated support for BN was high across every age group, ranging from 81.4% to 86.8%, with no clear tendency for younger Malays to be substantially more supportive of BN than older Malays."Ong said the apparently higher support for BN among younger voters in the overall age figures was largely explained by the ethnic composition of each age group."Younger cohorts contain a higher proportion of Malay voters, while older cohorts contain a higher proportion of Chinese voters."In other words, part of what appears to be an age effect is actually an ethnic-composition effect," he said.Ong also noted that support for Perikatan Nasional (PN) in the Johor polls "collapsed across every Malay age group”, while support for BN rose to above 80% among Malay voters in every age band.The reversal towards BN was largest among the younger Malays who had previously supported PN most strongly, he said."This suggests that the 2022 youth tilt towards PN was not a permanent generational realignment: by 2026, Malay voting behaviour had become comparatively flat across age groups."BN won 48 of the 56 seats it contested in the July 11 polls, reducing Pakatan Harapan to eight seats from the 12 it won in 2022. PN lost in all 33 seats it contested. Former Bangi MP Ong Kian Ming said election outcomes are determined not only by which party voters prefer, but also by whether those voters turn out.PETALING JAYA: The drop in Chinese votes for Pakatan Harapan (PH) at the Johor polls earlier this month was driven mainly by lower turnout rather than a swing to Barisan Nasional (BN), DAP’s Ong Kian Ming says.In a statement, the former Bangi MP said an estimated 75.5% of Malay voters cast their ballots in the state election on July 11, compared to 61% of Chinese voters.According to Ong, BN received an estimated 84.9% of Malay ballots while PH received an estimated 85.6% of Chinese ballots.However, because Chinese turnout was substantially lower, PH received the support of only 52.2% of the entire eligible Chinese electorate, compared with the 64.1% of the eligible Malay electorate which supported BN, he said.Ong said election outcomes are determined not only by which party voters prefer, but also by whether those voters turn out."PH may retain the loyalty of a large majority of non-Malay voters who cast ballots, but still suffer an electoral setback if a substantial share of its voter base stays home," added Ong, who predicted a decisive win by BN in the run-up to the Johor polls.Compared to the last general election, Chinese turnout fell by an estimated 8 percentage points, from 69.0% to 61.0%, while PH’s support among Chinese voters who turned out also declined, but more moderately, from 91.5% to 85.6%, he said."Estimates suggest that approximately two-thirds of PH’s decline among the eligible Chinese electorate came from lower turnout, rather than Chinese voters switching to BN."Any crossover to BN was comparatively small."Ong said the Malay voter pattern was very different.

He said Malay turnout remained broadly stable compared with the 15th general election, "but the choice of party changed dramatically".BN’s estimated support among the eligible Malay electorate increased from 36.5% to 64.1%, while Perikatan Nasional's support fell from 34.5% to 6.8%, he said.Ong said the increase for BN and decline for PN were almost exactly one-for-one."This indicates that BN’s landslide was driven primarily by a large net reversal from PN to BN among Malay voters, rather than by higher Malay turnout alone."BN won 48 of the 56 seats it contested on July 11, while PH won only eight seats, down by four from the 12 it won …