Saudi Arabia’s dilemma as it tries to stay out of US-Iran war

Saudi Arabia is facing a difficult dilemma. Ever since the US and Israel launched their war on Iran on 28 February, the Saudis have largely tried to stay out of it. But now, after being attacked from three sides, the Saudis have had enough.

This week, they carried out joint strikes with the US on Iranian proxy militias in Iraq who they believe have been launching drones at the Kingdom. For Saudi Arabia the dilemma now is whether to keep on hitting back as a deterrent, or whether to try to de-escalate the situation, perhaps by paying off some of their adversaries. There are broadly two sides in the conflict that has been consuming the Gulf and other parts of the Middle East for five months now.

On one side there is Iran and its Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). Allied to them are the Houthis in Yemen, a tribal group who took over much of the country in 2014. Also backed by Iran are the Popular Mobilisation Forces in Iraq, the paramilitary group that has allegedly carried out 30 drone strikes on Saudi Arabia and has now been attacked in return.

Then there is Hezbollah in Lebanon, still a potent force but one that is currently lying low. The US and Saudi Arabia carried out strikes at a site belonging to Iraq’s paramilitary Popular Mobilisation Forces On the opposite side of this conflict is the US with its immensely powerful Central Command (Centcom) forces plus – to varying degrees – the Gulf Arab states and Jordan. Israel remains a close US ally but is currently not an active participant in this war.

Iran has most recently been concentrating its drone and missile attacks on Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain, as well as targeting any commercial shipping that tries to slip through the Strait of Hormuz while avoiding Iran’s new rules and routing. The addition of Iraqi militias and the Houthis in Yemen is a relatively new phenomenon and it shows how – without a lasting peace deal between the US and Iran – the region risks becoming ever more embroiled in a widening conflict. There are a number of reasons why Saudi Arabia is trying not to get sucked into a full-scale conflict.

Its de facto ruler, the relatively young Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman, has embarked the country on a course known as “Vision 2030”. His aim is to diversify the Kingdom away from its dependence on oil revenues and to create vibra…