The strengthening El Niño and what it could mean for Ghana

A major shift is underway in the global climate system, and Ghana should be paying attention. The latest outlook from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) indicates that El Niño is now firmly established in the tropical Pacific Ocean and is expected to strengthen further towards the end of 2026 1. Current forecasts indicate an exceptionally high likelihood that El Niño conditions will persist through February 2027.

For Ghana, however, the important question is not simply whether El Niño is occurring. It is “what could it mean for our rainfall, temperatures, agriculture, water resources and livelihoods?” What exactly is El Niño? El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon associated with unusually warm ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.

Although the Pacific Ocean is thousands of kilometres away from Ghana, changes in its temperature can alter large-scale atmospheric circulation and consequently influence weather patterns across many parts of the world. Contrasting sea-surface temperature anomalies associated with El Niño and La Niña. El Niño is characterized by unusually warm surface waters across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, while La Niña features unusually cool conditions in same region.

These large-scale ocean temperature changes can alter atmospheric circulation and influence rainfall and temperature patterns around the world, including West Africa. The current event deserves particular attention because it is strengthening considerably. The latest assessment by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates a greater than 90% chance of a very strong El Niño during the Northern Hemisphere autumn and winter of 2026 – 27.

But there is an important caution: a strong El Niño globally does not automatically translate into an equally strong impact in Ghana. Ghana’s climate is influenced by several interacting systems, including the West African Monsoon (WAM), the position and strength of the Inter-Tropical Discontinuity (ITD), sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic and Gulf of Guinea, atmospheric circulation patterns, land-surface conditions and other regional processes. El Niño is therefore one important driver among several.

Historically, El Niño has been associated with changes in rainfall over parts of West Af…