The US has loosened Iran's grip on the Strait of Hormuz, but the costly war is far from over

In recent weeks, the United States has succeeded in loosening Iran’s grip over the Strait of Hormuz while virtually shutting down Iran’s own oil exports, accelerating its economic free fall. and Israel in February — intended to last a few weeks — is still far from over, and the stalemate is costly for both sides. An agreement reached in June quickly crumbled, with so sign of diplomatic progress since then.

Low-level fighting persists, and the U.S. does not seem to have an exit strategy. The mounting economic pressure on Iran has yet to stoke an uprising, and if its leaders are backed into a corner, they may opt for military escalation rather than capitulation.

Their Houthi allies in Yemen have meanwhile stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia, helping to push oil prices back up. The price of a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, surged above $100 this week, and diesel — heavily used in transport and farming — hit a record, potentially stoking inflation. President Donald Trump has acknowledged that gas prices are likely to stay high through the midterm congressional elections.

is not winning in the war with Iran despite its limited success in loosening Iran’s grip over the strait and the devastating impact on Iran’s economy,” said Mona Yacoubian, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “Iran shows no sign of backing down, and instead has demonstrated a willingness to not only fight back, but escalate wherever it can. The war is likely to be protracted with no clear victor.” Iran loses leverage as oil moves through the Strait of Hormuz Iran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz — through which a fifth of the world’s traded oil and gas transits in peacetime — in the opening days of the war, using the worldwide economic shock as leverage.

Meanwhile, it continued to export its own oil, mainly to China. But in recent weeks, the balance has reversed. blockade has virtually halted Iran’s exports, while the American military has facilitated greater exports by Gulf countries, according to figures compiled by Homayoun Falakshahi, an oil expert at Kpler, a global trade monitor.

He found that Iran’s oil exports had dropped from 1.85 million barrels a day last spring to around 255,000 in August. Exports of non-Iranian oil rose from 300,000 …