“The margin for maneuver is rapidly running out”: the warning about the El Niño phenomenon in 2026 and its extreme effects on the climate

Climate projections indicate that the El Niño phenomenon in 2026 could be the most intense since record-keeping began in the 1870s, prompting warnings that the window for effective response is rapidly shrinking for governments and international organizations.

At the same time, scientific studies project that this powerful climate event and the record global heat it drives—coupled with severe droughts, wildfires, and diminishing water supplies—could result in nearly 451,000 additional deaths worldwide by the end of the period.