Why Lula won in Brazil: the factors that tipped the election and the challenge he will face in Congress

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva won the presidential runoff election in Brazil, securing a fourth mandate by defeating right-wing opponent Flávio Bolsonaro. The victory prompted mass street celebrations in São Paulo, where thousands gathered on the Avenida Paulista, as well as international congratulations from figures such as European Commission Vice-President Teresa Ribera and Spain's BNG, who hailed the outcome as significant for democracy and the global left.

Domestically, the election outcome generated immediate economic turbulence and political friction. Brazilian financial markets reacted negatively to the left-wing victory, with the São Paulo Stock Exchange suspending operations briefly following a sharp drop and the real depreciating against the dollar. Meanwhile, political tensions arose as the opposition candidate, Flávio Bolsonaro, refused to recognize the results, citing a judicial decision to extend voting hours.

Analyses of the electoral process point to multiple factors that tilted the race, including social measures announced prior to the ballot, digital campaigns, and grassroots mobilization. Lula's administration will now face the challenge of navigating a difficult legislative landscape in the Congress alongside managing market reactions and societal polarization.