Weaker wind shear during El Nino plays a role in the formation of Isaias in the US Gulf

Tropical Storm Isaias formed Wednesday in the warm waters off eastern Mexico and forecasters predicted it will quickly strengthen into the first hurricane of the Atlantic season before striking the U.S. Gulf Coast later in the week.Communities in Isaias' potential path moved quickly to prepare with landfall forecast as soon as Friday evening. Some Gulf oil wells paused production and an Alabama beach city canceled a weekend festival known to draw thousands of tourists.

Florida's governor declared a state of emergency for more than one-third of the state's counties.As it moves inland, Isaias might also disrupt Saturday's college football showdown between rivals Georgia and Alabama — a game President Donald Trump has planned to attend.Isaias could become a major Category 3 hurricane, with winds of 111 mph (178 kph) or stronger, before it strikes land, said Michael Brennan, director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center.“We’re expecting multiple dangerous, life-threatening impacts along portions of the northern Gulf Coast beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend," Brennan said in a video briefing Wednesday.The storm was on track to tie or break a 121-year-old record as the latest arriving initial hurricane of the Atlantic season. According to the National Weather Service, the record dates to 1905, when the year’s first Atlantic hurricane formed on Oct.

8.The Atlantic hurricane season has been unusually quiet this year because of a strong El Nino, which disrupts storm formation over that ocean. Storm activity has been above average in the Pacific, where Tropical Storm Simon also formed Wednesday off Mexico.Storm surge threat extends from Louisiana to FloridaThe Miami-based hurricane center issued a hurricane watch Wednesday for the northern Gulf Coast from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, to Indian Pass on the Florida Panhandle.

The watch means hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours.Brennan said dangerous storm surge could affect an even wider area, from southeast Louisiana to Florida's Big Bend. Heavy rains of 3 to 7 inches (7 to 18 centimeters) could trigger flash flooding near the coast, with accumulations of 1 to 3 inches (3 to 8 centimeters) as far inland as Tennessee and the western Carolinas.Isaias was centered about 225 miles (365 kilometers) west-northwest of Progreso, Mexico, and about 500 miles (805 kilometers) south-southwest of the Mi… The super El Nino has been a nonstop machine cranking out tropical storms that have seemingly rolled through the Pacific region like rush-hour traffic.

One of the strongest El Nino years on record meant a quiet first four months of the Atlantic hurricane season, but that’s no longer the case. Tropical Storm Isaias, which formed Wednesday, is expected to gain hurricane strength by Thursday before moving onshore. If that happens, it would tie a 121-year-old record for the latest-forming initial hurricane of the Atlantic season.

8, 1905, according to the National Weather Service. Isaias is the ninth named storm of the season. None of the previous ones reached hurricane strength.