Zimbabwe passes first IMF programme assessment, but risks remain

THE International Monetary Fund (IMF) has completed the first review of Zimbabwe’s 10-month Staff-Monitored Programme (SMP), projecting continued single-digit inflation while warning that economic risks remain. The milestone, approved by IMF management following the successful implementation of programme targets through March 2026, marks a significant step in Zimbabwe’s efforts to consolidate recent macroeconomic stability, strengthen its policy implementation record and advance arrears clearance, debt restructuring and re-engagement with the international community. In a statement, the IMF said Zimbabwe’s economy remained resilient despite a challenging global environment.

“Despite a challenging global economic environment, Zimbabwe’s economy demonstrated resilience, achieving a growth rate of 8.3% in 2025. This performance was underpinned by improved agricultural output, strong mining activity, and favourable gold prices. “The IMF projects economic growth to continue at 5% in 2026, moderating to 4.2% over the medium term, with inflation expected to remain in single-digit figures, contingent upon the maintenance of current macroeconomic policies.” However, the Fund cautioned that the country’s outlook remains vulnerable.

“The outlook remains favourable, but risks are tilted to the downside,” the IMF said, citing the potential impact of a significant El Niño weather event and renewed conflict in the Middle East. According to the IMF, Zimbabwe met all end-March quantitative targets under the programme, including those relating to the primary budget balance, net international reserves, Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) lending to the non-financial public sector, external borrowing limits and monetary base growth. While most indicative targets were achieved, the Fund noted that the target for protected social and priority spending was missed.

The IMF also confirmed that structural benchmarks due at the end of March and June had been completed, with authorities continuing to implement subsequent reform commitments. The Fund praised the government’s fiscal performance, saying the primary budget balance exceeded expectations on the back of stronger-than-expected revenue collections. It urged authorities to maintain spending within the approved 2026 National Budget ceilings while saving any additional revenues to build buffers against possible food security challenge…