An impending "super" El Niño is likely to inflict a combined $10 billion to $20 billion hit on affected African countries and trigger mass migration from hard-hit areas, the African Development Bank's top climate expert told Reuters. Forecasters are warning that the El Niño weather pattern — which often drives severe droughts, flooding and storms in Africa — could turn into one of the strongest ever seen if current Pacific Ocean warming trends continue. As well as the threat to food and water security, government finances and banking sectors could also be undermined if disasters damage infrastructure and leave cash-strapped countries struggling to repay the connected loans.
"Just this event is going to reduce heavily affected countries' GDP by 1% to 2% on average, which is about $10 billion to $20 billion across the continent," Anthony Nyong, the AfDB's director for climate change and green growth, said in an interview. The AfDB's most recent forecasts in May predicted Africa as a whole would see 4.2% economic growth this year, rising to 4.4% in 2027 assuming the United States-Israeli war on Iran eases. Read: ‘Godzilla’ El Nino: scientific warning or media hype?
That, however, was before forecasts of a "super" or "Godzilla" El Niño were made. Nyong's estimate of the likely $10 to $20 billion hit is the first given by a major multilateral development bank in relation to El Niño. He did not provide a country-by-country breakdown of the estimate but warned it was unlikely to be a one-off either.
Drought conditions, which much of the Sahel region has been suffering from in recent years, may persist, while Mozambique's experiences after Cyclone Idai in 2019 show it can take years to recover from major storms. Governments were also getting snared in what Nyong described as the "climate finance trap", where they lack the resources to respond to crises and are forced to raid health, education or infrastructure budgets to meet the costs. The 2023 to 2024 El Niño event caused severe drought in Southern Africa and heavy rains and flooding in East Africa.
These conditions led to widespread crop failures, surging food prices, and record-breaking sea-level spikes along the continent's coastlines. The AfDB has estimated Africa's farmers are already facing nearly $330 million in lost income this year, while fishing industries could be hit hard too due to rising sea tempera…
Summary from source